Looking for Mr. Good Choice
With seven distinct choices, Republicans remain widely split and have yet to establish a strong front-runner for the 2012 presidential elections.
A recent CNN poll indicates strong splits among registered Republicans, with about fifty percent (50%) expressing sympathies for tea-party candidates and positions, with five percent (5%) expressing open hostility towards the lineup of candidates. The remainder are aloof, uncommitted towards a single candidate and continue to have concerns about a front runner capable of beating President Barack Obama.
Many pundits believe that by spring, a single front runner, likely Mitt Romney, will take a commanding lead over his present competition for the Republican candidacy, though many believe that in the general election, Republican voter aloofness will translate to voter apathy and uninspired, many will simply not vote.
There remains concern that evangelicals, conservatives, tea-partiers and other groups and factions within the Republican party will remain uncommitted to Romney for a variety of reasons ranging from his establishment of healthcare in Massachusetts while governor, to his Mormon faith to his background as a highly paid corporate executive. Should this persist to Election Day, Romney’s voter support may be insufficient to carry the popular vote.
On the other side of the aisle, many Democrats are deeply upset with the perceived lack of leadership and focus on economic stabilization from the Obama administration. While pleased that he succeeded in getting many of the al Qaeda terrorist, including Osama bin Laden, as well as working intelligently to rid the world of Muammar Gaddafi, Democrats may well vote economics – as many of them (and Republicans) remain unemployed, or suffer from mortgages in foreclosure or underwater. No president in the last century was re-elected with a national unemployment rate over 8%.
That said, there are arguments to be made in either direction as to whether President Obama will recapture voter enthusiasm and remain in the White House for another term. One of our analysts suggest he has the option of switching Vice President Biden and Secretary of State Clinton’s roles to re-enthuse Clinton supporters, many of whom were greatly disappointed in 2008.
His charismatic speaking may also help win the day and the power and prestige of the Oval Office will certainly bolster his standing. Another thing going for him is that Americans are becoming numbed to the bad employment statistics and may simply ignore their own plight to give him an extended chance to finish the job.
Many Democrats remain appalled at the behavior of Tea Party Republicans in the House over the Debt Ceiling issues several months ago and blame them for Standard & Poors decision to downgrade the United States rating from its historic AAA to AA+. This, plus other anti-Tea Party sentiments by both mainstream Democrats and liberal leaning Occupy Wall Street sympathizers may push the President’s chances for greater general election support.
Romney’s failure to exceed 30 percent support among the Republican base so far may prompt conservatives and particularly extremely partisan Republicans to intensify their partisanship. This might be a boondoggle for Democrats in 2016 and even 2020. Further factionalizing the Republican base, they most likely would respond to a 2012 loss to Obama by pushing forth a much more radical, ultra conservative candidate in 2016 giving Democrats the opportunity to capture middle-of-the-road independent voters. By 2020, they may simply lose all hope and put up an incredibly weak candidate, giving whoever wins in 2016 the upper hand.
Some pundits have also suggested that an unknown entity – some extremely popular conservative will suddenly emerge to run, capturing all of Romney’s supporters as well as those of the five temporary messiahs of the Tea Party faction. The likelihood of this is growing slimmer and dimmer as we now are in the final 12 months of this election cycle. This mystery candidate would need to have an incredible level of support as well as a power base, personal financial war chest and a massive political machine behind him. So far, none seems to match the criteria.
Our best analysis seems to indicate that Obama will remain President in 2012, capturing the general election by a relatively slim margin. Should that happen, the year to watch will be 2014 in Congressional, local and gubernatorial elections.
